The concluding board-game maxims combine hard preparation with self-questioning, patience and an open mind. They distinguish players who alter a plan when necessary from those who continue blindly.
Write an adaptation trigger
A plan is useful because it makes assumptions explicit. If those assumptions fail, updating is not the same as abandoning discipline. The disciplined step is to state which new observation changes the plan and why.
Worked example
A fictional research plan assumes consistent data definitions. Discovery of a source change justifies repairing or narrowing the study, rather than silently mixing incompatible records.
Case connection
Preparation should identify adaptation triggers. A removed policy floor is a clear example of a changed assumption.
The Swiss franc policy break
Source-grounded facts
The Swiss National Bank ended its CHF 1.20-per-euro floor, replacing a policy that market participants had relied upon.
Context
The Swiss National Bank had maintained a minimum rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. That policy formed part of the environment in which traders and businesses made currency decisions.
Outcome
The bank continued monitoring exchange-rate conditions after ending the floor. Removing one policy commitment did not mean abandoning monetary policy or promising a particular subsequent exchange rate.
- On 15 January 2015, the bank announced that it was discontinuing the minimum exchange rate.
- It also lowered the interest rate on sight deposits to −0.75%.
- In April, its chairman explained that euro weakness had required interventions of rapidly increasing size, making the floor unsustainable.
Case analysis
A plan should include the observation that would invalidate a key assumption. The policy announcement supplies a clear example of such a trigger. Updating after an assumption changes can be disciplined, provided the change and the reason are explicit. That differs from continually rewriting a plan merely because the latest price move feels uncomfortable.
Try it
For a plan you are following, write one change in conditions that would justify revising it.