The opening of this chapter connects support from family, music and sport with resistance to dogma. Its account of squash traditions and changing coaching practices also shows that conventions can evolve.
Avoid making dissent a new dogma
Our takeaway is that being contrary is not itself a method. Independent judgment should let you question authority and also question yourself. A result that contradicts your preferred position deserves the same attention as one that contradicts the consensus.
Worked example
Two analysts disagree with a popular rule. One defines a test; the other treats popularity as proof that the rule is wrong. Only the first has created a way to learn.
Case connection
Independent judgment means exposing your own preferred answer to correction as well as questioning the consensus.
Psychology’s replication project
Source-grounded facts
Researchers attempted to replicate 100 psychology findings; 36% reached statistical significance in the same direction.
Context
A published finding answers a question in one study. The Reproducibility Project: Psychology asked whether independent repetitions would support a selected group of published findings.
Outcome
The project exposed uncertainty about reproducibility. A failed significance test is not automatically proof that the original claim was false or fraudulent; interpretation requires examining methods, precision and conditions.
- Researchers attempted to replicate 100 psychology findings.
- They compared the new evidence with the original results, including direction, significance and effect sizes.
- The Center for Open Science reports that 36% reached statistical significance in the same direction; replication effect sizes were about half the originals.
Case analysis
Independent judgment requires symmetrical curiosity. Examine evidence that supports your preferred interpretation and evidence that challenges it with the same care. Replication is useful precisely because it can disappoint both a confident consensus and a confident critic. Disagreement becomes a learning method only when its outcome can lead you to change your own position.
Try it
Identify a conventional belief you doubt. Record both the evidence against it and the strongest evidence in its favor.